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The Professional Gambler’s Guide to the 2002 Academy Awards
The 2002 Oscars…I’ve lost interest. Really, it’s sad. I’m not going to rant and rave about what should win, what should be nominated, and what should be burned this year. The best I can do is say that, among the nominees, In The Bedroom is the most deserving of Best Picture. However, that ain’t likely. The Academy will never give it to that movie. I’m surprised it was nominated. So let’s just look at what was nominated and what I think will probably win.
First things first:
Best Picture
Of the nominees, Moulin Rouge and Fellowship of the Ring are the most deserving. Gosford Park is too, but I doubt that the Academy is going to suddenly offer Robert Altman a win now. That’d be like Hitchcock winning best picture for Psycho. Sadly, it’ll probably be A Beautiful Mind that walks off…a steaming pile of horseshit, if you ask me. My reasoning is simple. Director Baz Luhrmann was not nominated for Best Director, and never has a movie won Best Picture without its director at least being nominated. So Moulin Rouge probably won’t win, although it’s certainly the kind of film that could win. Fellowship of the Ring…well, that’s sci-fi. I’m actually amazed that it was nominated. Fantasy isn’t something that ever wins though…on the other hand, it is the movie that made the most money, and in the awards ceremony where money is everything, it’s possible. Still though, I’m betting money on A Beautiful Mind.
Best Actor
Russell Crowe is great. He really is. He did well in A Beautiful Mind, and other than Tom Wilkinson for In The Bedroom, there’s really no one else who could win. Can someone tell me how the fuck Sean Penn got a nomination? Edward Norton showed us all in The Score just how easy it is to pretend to be retarded. And I am Sam was shit as well. In the end, only Denzel Washington proves to be any sort of threat to Russell Crowe’s win (as stated before, In the Bedroom has a snowball’s chance in hell). Put money on Russell Crowe.
Best Actress
Halle Berry, hands down, deserves the win. Nicole Kidman did well, and does have a real shot. Still, Judi Dench is somewhat of a favorite…although Iris was a pile of shit as well. My pick: Nicole Kidman. Halle Berry has the chops, and deserves the win. But something tells me she won’t get it. She’s done too many movies in the B area.
Supporting Actor
Ben Kingsley, Ian McKellen, Jon Voight…yikes. McKellen would be a decent winner, as his performance in Fellowship of the Ring was exemplary. Normally I’d say Sexy Beast doesn’t stand a shot, but Ben Kingsley…IT’S BEN GODDAMN KINGSLEY! He was brilliant in the movie, and he’s been in the mainstream eye ever since Gandhi. Any one of the three, Voight, McKellen, and Kingsley, would be good shots at winning. Voight did well as Howard Cosell…but I’d hate to give anything to Ali. Another pile…anyway, put money on Ben Kingsley if you’re following my opinion at all.
Best Director
I’m getting sick and goddamned tired of Ron Howard. The man hasn’t done anything I can stomach since Apollo 13. Both Robert Altman and David Lynch…well, I’d have a heart attack if either of them won. They’re the red-headed stepchildren of Hollywood, and as brilliant as they both are (and their films this year), they’re not going to win. Sure, Ridley Scott deserves it…and after winning last year (don’t get me STARTED on that travesty) he’s got a shot again this year. But Black Hawk Down wasn’t given a best picture nomination, so I don’t know if he’s got a shot. So…we’ve shot down all but two right there. Of those two, Peter Jackson is the most deserving for Fellowship of the Ring over Ron Howard for A Beautiful Mind. So…put your money on Ron Howard for Best Director and then go get drunk, because nothing in the world makes sense. However, I can see either Ridley Scott or Peter Jackson winning. Jackson’s movie has made muchos dinero, and Black Hawk Down was damned good…a bit cloying, but damned good. It certainly deserved a nomination, but not a win, for best picture.
Animated Film
Waking Life wasn’t even nominated!? What the…OK, sorry. I promised I wouldn’t go into this. Give it to Shrek. Of the three nominees, it’s most deserving. However, short attention spans…so Monsters Inc. has a shot. My bet: Shrek. Goddamn them and their disrespect of Waking Life…
Foreign Film
My money says Amelie. Not only is it the best foreign film, it’s the best film of the year hands down.
Screenplay (adapted)
Here’s where Fellowship of the Ring will likely pick up a win. They’re not going to send these guys home completely empty-handed. You know what to give your bookie.
Screenplay (original)
I dunno, I’d like to say that Memento will get a little something here. But The Royal Tennenbaums certainly deserve it…I’m shooting in the dark here…Memento. But don’t quote me.
Art Direction
Harry Potter was only nominated for three, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they got a win here. However, my money says either Moulin Rouge or Fellowship of the Ring…so, bet on Fellowship of the Ring. This ceremony looks to belong almost entirely to Baz Luhrmann and Peter Jackson after the acting awards are gone.
Cinematography
Again, Moulin Rouge.
Sound
I hate to say it, but Pearl Harbor might pick this one up. Black Hawk Down has a good shot too. Go with Ridley Scott when the betting pool opens up. But, I’m going to gamble loose and say…again, to give it 50/50 on Moulin Rouge or Fellowship of the Ring.
Sound Editing
Gee, it’s either Monsters Inc. or Pearl Harbor. Pearl Harbor, as much as I hate the idea of that shitbag winning anything…sorry, language!
Original Score
John Williams is rather an Academy Darling. Howard Shore, though, stands a reasonable shot against the aging titan for his work on Fellowship of the Ring. If you lose the bet of John Williams, don’t say I didn’t reject the possibility. Of course, Randy Newman proves to be a true fly in the ointment…but John Williams will probably kick him around the block…possibly for Harry Potter.
Original Song
Paul McCartney or Randy Newman. Shit, McCartney is a world treasure, no matter how bad the song was. My bet: McCartney for "Vanilla Sky."
Film Editing
50/50 on Moulin Rouge or Fellowship of the Ring. Take your pick, ‘cause I’m not going to go there.
Makeup
Fellowship of the Ring. Hands down.
Visual Effects
Again, Fellowship of the Ring.
There are more nominees…but YOU’RE ON YOUR OWN…gambling addicts beware, Oscar Night may belong entirely to Moulin Rouge or Fellowship of the Ring. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. I have this bad feeling in my stomach, however, that Ron Howard will muck everything up.